黑料福利社

Whoever claimed trade wars are easy to win clearly wasn鈥檛 an American farmer. Witness the enormous collateral damage America鈥檚 soybean producers are suffering amid President Trump鈥檚 trade war with China.

Exports of American soybeans to China have collapsed this year, with no new orders logged in recent months ahead of the prime autumn export season. Before Mr. Trump鈥檚 first round of tariffs on China in 2018, China was the largest export market for American soy. It typically bought about 30% of total U.S. soybean production and some 60% of American soybean exports. Those exports were worth $12.8 billion annually, the soybean farmers鈥� trade association reports.

Beijing has made a concerted effort to diversify its supply of soybeans and related products since the first Trump Administration. Brazil and, more recently, Argentina have been the big winners.

Beijing also has imposed a 23% retaliatory tariff on American soybeans in response to Mr. Trump鈥檚 tariffs on Chinese imports this year. This adds some $2 per bushel to the cost of American soybeans sold in China, far outweighing an American production price advantage of 80 to 90 cents a bushel, Reuters reports. As a result, American farmers lose out on large advance orders since China buys from the U.S. only to fill gaps in South American and other production.

At least American soy farmers are in good company as China targets a range of American agricultural products for retaliation. Cattle ranchers are seeing Chinese demand for American beef dwindle as China shifts its consumption to imports from Australia.

The protectionists鈥� solution is to throw more subsidies at American farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Mr. Trump this month floated plans to use a portion of tariff revenue to write checks to farmers.

Mr. Trump said the handouts to farmers might continue 鈥渦ntil the tariffs kick in to their benefit,鈥� in which case Treasury will be making payouts for a long time. And talk about blowing a hole in protectionists鈥� argument that tariffs are free money for the government that can be used for other purposes.

Don鈥檛 mistake any of this for a Chinese victory per se. Beijing is forcing Chinese consumers 鈥� who have much lower per-capita incomes than Americans 鈥� to pay more for soy products than they otherwise would. Most recent data point to a marked deterioration as the Trump tariffs weigh on an economy already struggling with a property-market deflation and a crushing debt burden.

But the plight of America鈥檚 farmers is a reminder that the destruction of a trade war is mutually assured, and not inflicted solely by one side on the other as Mr. Trump鈥檚 trade warriors so often claim. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said America holds all the cards in Mr. Trump鈥檚 tariff game because the rest of the world needs to sell us stuff. Tell that to America鈥檚 farmers.