It was Ronald Reagan who first posed the quintessential campaign question, during the sole 1980 presidential debate, 鈥淎re you better off today than you were four years ago?鈥 America鈥檚 answer would soon expel Jimmy Carter from the White House in a historic landslide.
Donald Trump鈥檚 campaign is now using the same question against President Joe Biden. It鈥檚 a strategy that, this time, relies heavily on national amnesia.
Four years ago this month was the officially recognized start of the coronavirus pandemic, which would ultimately see a far higher death rate in America than in other advanced countries.
It鈥檚 unknowable how much then-President Trump鈥檚 self-focused, politically obsessed mishandling of the crisis contributed to that excess death and suffering. But can anyone who recalls those chaotic, confrontational, often counter-factual daily presidential news conferences back then honestly doubt it was a significant factor?
Trump refused early on to acknowledge scientific warnings that this was a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, predicting against all evidence that the death toll wouldn鈥檛 exceed double digits. As the body count escalated, he engaged in petty political spats with Democratic governors, suggesting at one point that 鈥渢hey have to treat us well鈥 if they want federal emergency assistance.
Trump鈥檚 administration does deserve credit for its record-quick development of the COVID vaccine 鈥 which makes it all the more ironic, and tragic, that his irresponsible embrace of anti-science hokum caused much of his base to reject vaccination.
Trump himself, desperate for a silver bullet, continued to publicly promote the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine even after his own FDA found it non-effective and likely dangerous
Trump was tested by a historic crisis in a way few presidents are. Does anyone not encumbered by partisan-colored glasses really believe Trump passed?
Trump鈥檚 first three years did indeed see a booming economy, with rising employment and falling inflation 鈥 positive trends that were essentially moving along the same trajectories they had during the Obama recovery that Trump inherited.
Even though there was no economic need for a big federal intervention in the economy at that point (in fact, quite the opposite), Trump signed into law the massive Republican tax cut for the rich in 2017 that has added some $2 trillion to the deficit. So much for fiscal responsibility.
On the world stage, Trump virtually collapsed U.S. global stature with a foreign policy that was impetuous and lurching. His needless spats with our NATO allies 鈥 and his deeply troubling (and continuing) acquiescence to Russian leader Vladimir Putin 鈥 set the world on edge.
The impact at home of Trump鈥檚 pugilistic, malicious brand of politics on America鈥檚 culture cannot be overstated. We became a noticeably angrier country under his watch, as he turned political differences personal, attacking fellow politicians and citizens alike with public belittling, childish name-calling and other tactics once considered beneath the presidency.
Remember his declaration that there were 鈥渇ine people on both sides鈥 at Charlottesville 鈥 a deadly conflict in which one side was dominated by antisemitism-spouting white nationalists?
Remember when he told four congresswomen of color (three of them American-born) to 鈥済o back鈥 to the 鈥渃rime infested places from which they came鈥?
Remember 鈥 most of all 鈥 the days we could still tell ourselves that no American president had ever, nor would ever, attempt to violently overthrow an election?
Of course, the are-you-better-off question must necessarily consider not just the way things were under the previous administration, but the way they are now.
For many, it鈥檚 a question driven more by perception than data. As New York Times columnist Paul Krugman recently noted, multiple recent polls show the same Americans who declare (in contrast to most economic data) that the U.S. economy is faltering report far more positive assessments of their own economic situations.
Yes, today鈥檚 inflation rate of a little over 3% remains higher than the roughly 2% pre-pandemic average 鈥 and, yes, Biden shares some responsibility for that because of his stimulus spending.
But a much bigger factor was pandemic disruption to the global supply chain. The inflation rate has plunged since its mid-2022 high of around 9%, and remains far lower than in our peer countries. And that stimulus spending has undoubtedly contributed to continued economic growth that has so surprised economists.
Yes, Biden was slow to recognize the latest border crisis. But it is just that 鈥 the latest in a series of border crises, stretching back decades, caused by congressional inaction. Biden recently brokered a historic bipartisan deal that would have gone far to address the problem if not for Trump鈥檚 self-serving sabotage of it.
Yes, Biden botched the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, with tragic results. But he has since displayed a much-needed steadiness in foreign policy: repairing the damage Trump did to our NATO relationships, standing with Ukraine and supporting Israel while pushing for restraint and a peace process.
Reagan鈥檚 four-years-ago question is normally a referendum on the incumbent alone. But because of the unusual dynamics of this race 鈥 incumbent versus predecessor 鈥 it鈥檚 a binary test.
As such, voters will have more to go on than usual in deciding whether they鈥檇 personally be better off under a Trump or a Biden presidency going forward.
Inflation rates and the rest are inevitably part of the equation. But we would hope that assessment would take into account the personality-driven chaos of the former, the imperfect but stable normalcy of the second 鈥 and the fundamental character of each.
